New findings from Kaleido Intelligence predict that international travel trips will exceed pre-pandemic levels in 2024, marking a 3% increase from 2019 and surpassing 2 billion for the second time ever. Outbound travel recovery from China has been slow in 2023 and is expected to take another 12-18 months to return to pre-pandemic levels. Kaleido expects China to drive growth in 2024, with Asia-Pacific markets leading outbound (39%) and inbound (69%) year-over-year (y-o-y) increase.
Meanwhile, France, the host nation of the 2024 Olympic Games, will drive inbound arrivals and will account for around 11% of all 2024 international inbound trips.
The new research, ‘International Travel Trends & Forecasts 2024,’ found that there will be continued international growth, leading to 2.8 billion trips by the end of 2028. Kaleido foresees robust growth in emerging and established travel markets over the next five years, boosted by major sporting events in North America and Latin America in 2026.
Strong growth in 2023, driven by Europe & Central Asia region
Despite geopolitical challenges such as a weakened economic outlook and the conflict in Ukraine, international travel’s recovery remained positive in 2023, surpassing 1.7 billion travel trips — an increase of 32% from 2022. Europe & Central Asia continued to be the primary driver of this growth, contributing to over 50% of the total international trips in 2023.
However, the Q4 2023 international travel numbers have been significantly impacted by the recent Israel-Hamas conflict. Kaleido foresees neighbouring Egypt, Jordan, and Lebanon being affected despite their impressive inbound and outbound tourism rebound in the first three quarters of 2023.
“According to Kaleido’s estimates, inbound arrivals to Israel are expected to rise by 22% in 2023 compared to 2020, followed by a predicted sharp decline of over 40% in 2024,” said Dawnn Dinsey, a research analyst at Kaleido Intelligence. “Ongoing travel cancellations to neighbouring countries will further hinder travel growth for the entire Middle East region.”
Kaleido global international travel survey 2023: Key findings
- Leisure is the primary reason for international travel amongst respondents, led by India and the US.
- Short-haul journeys are preferred by travel respondents for upcoming international travel.
- Europe emerged as the most popular travel destination for respondents, whether for business reasons or leisure, in the next 12 months.
Access Kaleido’s International Tourism Trends & Forecasts 2024 report for in-depth insights into key travel trends and market development, in addition to the latest forecasts until 2028.
Comment on this article below or via X: @VanillaPlus
