According to findings from global technology intelligence firm ABI Research, the non-terrestrial networks (NTN)–mobile segment has the potential to reach a market value of at least [$18 billion (€16.40 billion)], with up to 200 million connections by 2031.
Last year saw the completion of 3GPP’s Release-17, contained within which were various new specifications allowing NTN (primarily satellites) to serve both handheld mobile devices and the IoT. Since then, numerous firms like Apple, Huawei, ZTE, Qualcomm, Motorola, MediaTek, Bullitt, Globalstar, Inmarsat, and Iridium have all entered partnerships within the satellite and mobile industries, seeking to capitalise on the emerging NTN–mobile market.
For the mobile network operators (MNOs), meanwhile, the growing prominence of low Earth orbit (LEO) satellite constellations represents an opportunity to their coverage beyond the reach of their traditional, terrestrial networks. T-Mobile, for instance, has joined forces with Starlink (SpaceX) to supply satellite-to-mobile connectivity. Similar partnerships from satellite operators such as Lynk and AST SpaceMobile, have been struck with MNOs including Vodafone, Rakuten Mobile, AT&T, Bell Canada, MTN Group, Orange, Zain KSA, Saudi Telecom Company (STC), and Telefónica.
According to Victor Xu, satellite communications research analyst at ABI Research, “The emergence of satellite-enabled mobile devices from major consumer smartphone manufacturers and chipset makers like Apple, Qualcomm, Motorola, MediaTek, Huawei, and ZTE indicates the upcoming introduction of satellite communications into the mainstream consumer market.”
“While exciting advancements are underway in satellite-to-mobile technology, it is important to note that the recently announced satellite services will initially prioritise low data rate communications through IoT-NTN technology,” Xu points out. Currently, satellite communication services have mainly focused on specialised emergency services and messaging with low data rates, but it is anticipated that satellite networks will eventually incorporate NR-NTN, a 5G-based, more advanced communication standard, in the next few years. The integration of NR-NTN will result in increased capacity and network capabilities, thereby enabling a larger number of concurrent users and applications with higher data rates. As a result, new possibilities and use cases for satellite connectivity will emerge.
Andrew Cavalier, satellite communications industry analyst from ABI Research adds, “The NTN Mobile marketspace has a positive outlook, with a projected compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 59% from 2024 to 2031.” The revenue growth in this sector will be driven primarily by the introduction of NR-NTN satellite services which is expected in 2026. Cavalier argues the potential adoption of NTN satellite services in consumer vehicles for mobile emergencies, messaging, voice, and data communications use cases would also be a driver for the growth of NTN-Mobile connections.
These findings are from ABI Research’s The Role of Satellite in 5G: Non-Terrestrial Networks Mobile application analysis report. This report is part of the company’s Satellite Communications research service, which includes research, data, and analyst insights. Based on extensive primary interviews, Application Analysis reports present in-depth analysis on key market trends and factors for a specific technology.
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